Daily Mail Political Poll February 2016
Poll for the Daily Mail on the Eu referendum, Cameron's renegotiation and VI

The first ComRes poll for the Daily Mail since David Cameron’s deal in Brussels suggests the British public are split on whether the Prime Minister succeeded or failed in improving Britain’s relationship with the EU, with 45% believing he succeeded and 42% feeling he failed.

However, with the majority of the British public believing that current level of net migration from the EU is too high (62%), most Britons think that the level of net migration to the UK will either not change (53%) or increase (21%) following Mr Cameron’s renegotiation. One in five (22%) think it will decrease as a result of the deal.

EU Referendum: Leave - Remain

  • The “Remain” lead over “Leave” has fallen by 6 points since the last ComRes/Daily Mail poll in January. The “Remain” lead now stands at 12 points, with 51% of Britons now saying they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU at a referendum tomorrow, compared to 39% saying they’d vote to leave. However, this result is in line with a ComRes / ITV poll released last week (49% remain, 41% leave), providing further evidence that the renegotiation process has led to a narrowing of the gap between ‘remain’ and ‘leave’.
  • There is still division among Conservative supporters with 52% now saying they will vote to remain compared to 39% who say they will vote to leave. Labour voters meanwhile back “Remain” by 70% to 23%.
  • Around two thirds (68%) of Britons say they are passionate about the issue of Britain’s membership of the EU. However, those likely to vote for “Remain” are more likely to say they are passionate than those supporting “Leave” (76% and 66% respectively).

The EU and British interests

  • Britons are more likely to feel that levels of immigration to Britain and the strength of British democracy will be better off if Britain leaves the EU than if it remained. While on the economy and national security a plurality believe they will be better off if Britain remains in the EU.

Politicians and the referendum

  • When deciding which side to campaign for at the EU referendum, the British public overwhelmingly think MPs should base their decision on the views of the public in their constituencies (74%) as opposed to that of their party leadership (5%) or their own views (20%).
  • In addition, three in five (61%) think it is wrong that government ministers were unable to air their views during David Cameron’s renegotiation, while only a third (35%) say they think this was right.

Full results:

EU Referendum

  1. If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question?

“Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

% ComRes voter turnout model applied
Remain 51% (-3) 55% (-2)
Leave 39% (+3) 37% (+3)
Don’t know 10% (NC) 8% (-1)

Base: GB adults (n=1,000). Figures in brackets are based on January 2016 (n=1,006).

 

  1. How passionate, if at all, would you say you are about the issue of Britain’s membership of the European Union?
%
NET: Passionate 68%
NET: Not passionate 32%
Don’t know 1%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000).  

  • While “Remain” voters are more likely to say they are passionate than those supporting “Leave” (76% and 66% respectively), those on the “Leave” side are more likely to say they are “very passionate” (30% compared to 24% of those saying “Remain”.)

Cameron’s EU deal

  1. AS ASKED ON FRIDAY: As you may know, David Cameron is currently trying to reach an agreement with the European Union about Britain’s position in the EU. Do you think that with this agreement, David Cameron will succeed or fail in improving Britain’s membership of the European Union?
  1. AS ASKED SATURDAY-MONDAY: As you may know, David Cameron has reached an agreement with the European Union about Britain’s position in the EU. With this agreement, do you think David Cameron has succeeded or failed in improving Britain’s membership of the European Union?
%
NET: Succeeded 45%
NET: Failed 42%
Succeeded to a great extent 3%
Succeeded to some extent 42%
Failed to some extent 20%
Failed to a great extent 22%
Don’t know 13%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000)

  • The British public are currently split on whether David Cameron’s deal with the EU has succeeded or failed in improving Britain’s relationship with the EU (45% say succeeded vs. 42% who say failed).
  • However, there is a greater divergence on the strength of feeling. One in five (22%) say Mr Cameron failed to great extent compared to just 3% that say he succeeded to a great extent. 
  • Conservative supports are significantly more likely than Labour to think the Prime minister succeeded (65% vs. 42%).

The EU and British interests

  1. Do you think each of the following would be better off if Britain remains a member of the EU or if Britain leaves the EU or does it make no difference?
Better off if the UK left the EU Better if the UK remained in the EU Would be no different Don’t know
Levels of immigration into Britain 48% 13% 36% 4%
The strength of British democracy 39% 21% 37% 3%
Britain’s national security 28% 34% 34% 4%
The British economy 24% 46% 25% 6%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000).  

  • Of the issues tested, Britons are most likely to think levels of immigration would be better off if Britain left the EU (48%, vs, 13% who think it would be better off if the UK remained), and the British economy would be better off if the UK remained in the EU (46%, vs. 24% who think it would be better off if the UK left the EU).
  • A plurality of the British public feel that the strength of British democracy would be better off if the UK left the EU (39%, vs. 21% who say it would be better if the UK remained) and the national security is better off in (34% vs. 28% who say it would be better if the UK left.)

Migration

  1. Net migration between to the UK from the EU is 180,000 per year. Do you think this level of net migration between the UK and EU is too high, too low or about right?
%
Too high 62%
Too low 2%
About right 33%
Don’t know 3%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000) 

  • The majority of Britons, around three in five (62%), say they think the level of net migration between the EU is too high, while around a third (33%) say it is about right.
  • Those intending to vote Conservative are significantly more likely than Labour voters to say it is too high (71% vs. 45%). 46% of Labour voters say this level is about right.
  1. And based on David Cameron's deal to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the EU, do you think net migration to the UK from EU countries will increase, decrease or not change?

 

%
Increase 21%
Decrease 22%
Not change 53%
Don’t know 4%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000) 

  • A majority (53%) of Britons do not think David Cameron’s deal to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the EU will change the net level of migration from the UK to EU countries. While one in five (21%) think it will increase the net migration to the UK.

Politicians and the referendum

  1. Should MPs decide whether to campaign in the referendum for Britain to remain or leave the EU based on…
%
Their own views 20%
The views of the public in their constituency 74%
The views of their party leadership 5%
Don’t know 2%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000)

  • Three quarters (74%) of Britons think that MPs should decide whether to campaign for “Leave” or “Remain” based on the views of the public in their constituency.
  • Two in five Britons (20%) think they should they should act on their own views, while only 5% think MPs should decide on the basis of their party leadership.
  1. During David Cameron’s renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the European Union, his government ministers were prevented from speaking openly about their views of the EU. Do you think it is right or wrong that government ministers were unable to speak out about their views on the EU until after the renegotiation was complete?

 

%
Right 35%
Wrong 61%
Don’t know 4%

Base: GB adults (n=1,000)

  • Three in five Britons (61%) think it is wrong that government ministers were unable to speak out about their own views on the EU until David renegotiation was complete. A third (35%) say it is right.
  • While a majority of Labour voters (61%) say it is wrong that government ministers were unable to speak out about their views, there is a split among Conservative voters. Around half (51%) say they think it is wrong, while just less than this (47%) say it is right.

 

Voting intention

Con      38% (+1)

Lab       31% (-1)

LD        8% (+2)

UKIP     12% (NC)

Green   3% (-1)

SNP      4% (NC)

Other   3% (NC)

 

Figures in brackets show change from January. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

 

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Date Published
23 February 2016
Client
Daily Mail
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,000 GB adults by telephone between 19th and 22nd February 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.