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Mayoral Voting Intention:

Ken Livingstone: 51%
Boris Johnson: 49%
(No overall winner from first preference votes. Results after reallocation of second preference choices.)
 
Summary:
 
Overall, the election is still Boris’s to win if he can appeal particularly to younger voters and to Lib Dems for their second preferences.  He also needs to work harder to show that he understands the concerns of "ordinary" Londoners.  Boris leads Ken on almost every measure in this poll, including (by some margin) being able to get the best deal for London from central Government.
 
The fact that so many Londoners expect Boris to win serves only to reinforce the point that to lose would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
 
Key points about VI (see p13 for turnout-weighted table):
 
·         Since our last poll in November 2011 Ken has overtaken Boris not only after reallocating second preferences (as the headline figure shows) but also on first preference votes (now leads 46% to 44% - in Nov Boris had an 8% point lead)
·         Boris’s loss of support is well demonstrated in the inner/outer split: in inner London Boris has 32% support – lower than Ken enjoys in outer London (43%).  Similarly Boris has 57% support in his own stronghold of outer London but this is again lower than Ken has in inner London (68%).
·         Boris struggles to win support among younger Londoners (18-44) while Ken struggles to gain the support of older ones.
·         For those in social groups AB and C1, there is just 2% between Boris and Ken. However, Ken leads with 69% to 31% among those in the C2 bracket, and (surprisingly) Boris has a small edge (54% to 46%) with the DE group.
·         As in 2008 and late 2011, Brian Paddick is the overwhelmingly most popular second preference choice for Londoners (38%; up from 36% in November 2011).
·         Interestingly, 59% of Lib Dem voters in the 2010 General Election support Ken for Mayor while 41% support Boris...given the historical importance of Lib Dem second preference votes this should be of concern to the Boris camp.
 
Other questions:
 
·         Despite’s Ken’s lead in our poll based on how individuals say they themselves would vote, Londoners are much more likely think that Boris is more likely to win than Ken.  Again, Boris’s campaign team should be concerned that many Londoners think that he has it in the bag.
·         While Ken has the lead in our poll, he has only one area of dominance over Boris: understanding the needs of ordinary Londoners.
·         Boris trumps Ken on fighting crime, changing London for the better, as well as various economic aspects.
·         Unsurprisingly, Brian Paddick’s advantage is perceived to be in lowering crime levels, but he still lags behind both Ken and Boris in this respect.
·          Ken’s pledge to reduce fares by 7% is seen as unrealistic by many, although many Londoners still admit to being more likely to vote for Ken because of this policy.
·         Conversely, Boris’ tube fare rises may have taken a toll on his popularity.
·         Interestingly, it appears that David Cameron’s spending cuts would have a greater detrimental effect on propensity to vote for Boris than Ed Miliband’s overall performance would have on the likelihood to vote for Ken.
·         There is a low level of support for Boris to take over from David Cameron as Prime Minster – and only a fifth of Boris Mayoral voters would want him to take over the nation’s top job.
 
OTHER DETAILED FINDINGS:
 
 
Which statement best applies to each candidate?
Has the best plan for the future of the London economy
 
Boris Johnson: 30%
Ken Livingstone: 26%
Brian Paddick: 2%
None of these: 10%
Don’t know: 31%
 
·         Men (35%) are more likely than women (27%) to agree that Boris has the best plan for London’s economy.
·         34% of those in outer London (vs. 24% in inner London) trust Boris on the economy, compared to 32% living in inner London who trust Ken (vs. 23% in outer London).
·         78% of those who would vote for Boris say he has the best plan for London’s economy. This is compared to 64% of those who would vote for Ken saying Ken has the best plan.
 
Has the best plan to bring down crime
Boris Johnson: 24%
Ken Livingstone: 20%
Brian Paddick: 11%
None of these: 12%
Don’t know: 33%
 
·         Men are more likely than women to trust Boris (28% vs. 21%), Ken (23% vs. 17%) and Paddick (13% vs. 9%).
o   39% of female Londoners say they don’t know which candidate has the best plan to bring down crime.
·         59% of those who would vote for Boris say he has the best plan to bring down crime. This is compared to 49% of those who would vote for Ken saying Ken has the best plan.
 
Knows most about the concerns of ordinary Londoners
Boris Johnson: 24%
Ken Livingstone: 35%
Brian Paddick: 4%
None of these: 14%
Don’t know: 22%
 
·         Men (40%) are more likely than women (32%) to think Ken knows most among the concerns of ordinary Londoners.
·         77% of those who would vote for Ken say he knows most about the concerns of ordinary Londoners. This is compared to 59% of those who would vote for Boris saying Boris has the best plan.
 
Is the best able to change London for the better
Boris Johnson: 31%
Ken Livingstone: 29%
Brian Paddick: 4%
None of these: 10%
Don’t know: 25%
 
·         Men are more likely than women to think Boris (36% vs. 28%) or Ken (33% vs. 25%) are best able to change London for the better.
·         81% of those who would vote for Boris say he is best able to change London for the better. This is compared to 71% of those who would vote for Ken saying Ken is best able.
 
Is the most likely to be able to get the best deal for London from central Government
Boris Johnson: 42%
Ken Livingstone: 21%
Brian Paddick: 2%
None of these: 10%
Don’t know: 25%
 
·         Men are more likely than women to think Boris (48% vs. 37%) or Ken (24% vs. 18%) are most likely to be able to get the best deal for London from central Government.
·         88% of those who would vote for Boris say he is most likely to be able to get the best deal for London from central Government. This is compared to 48% of those who would vote for Ken saying Ken is most likely.
 
Would be the best representative of London’s interests overseas
Boris Johnson: 32%
Ken Livingstone: 25%
Brian Paddick: 3%
None of these: 11%
Don’t know: 28%
 
·         Men are more likely than women to think Boris (37% vs. 28%) or Ken (28% vs. 23%) would best represent London’s interests overseas.
·         79% of those who would vote for Boris say he would be the representative of London’s interests overseas. This is compared to 61% of those who would vote for Ken saying Ken would do best.
 
 
Do you agree or disagree with these statements about the London mayoral contest?
I expect Boris Johnson will win
Agree: 46%
Disagree: 22%
Don’t know: 32%
 
·         Half (50%) of those in outer Londoners agree, compared to 39% in the inner boroughs.
·         82% of those voting for Boris expect him to win the Mayoral contest.
 
I expect Ken Livingstone will win
Agree: 24%
Disagree: 42%
Don’t know: 34%
 
·         32% of inner Londoners agree, compared to 20% in the outer boroughs.
·         55% of those voting for Ken expect him to win the Mayoral contest.
 
I expect Brian Paddick will win
Agree: 3%
Disagree: 69%
Don’t know: 28%
 
·         11% of those aged 18-24 agree.
 
Ken Livingstone cannot deliver on his pledge of a 7% cut in fares
Agree: 39%
Disagree: 30%
Don’t know: 31%
 
·         75% of those voting for Boris agree, compared to 13% of Ken voters.
·         46% of those aged 45-64 agree, and 54% of those aged 65+.
·         43% of outer Londoners agree, compared to 32% in the inner boroughs.
 
Ken Livingstone’s 7% fare cut pledge makes me more likely to vote for him
Agree: 38%
Disagree: 42%
Don’t know: 20%
 
·         47% of inner Londoners agree, compared to 33% in the outer boroughs.
·         74% of Ken voters – and 10% of Boris voters – agree that the fare pledge makes it more likely that they will vote for Ken.
 
Boris Johnson’s tube fares increases make me less likely to vote for him
Agree: 44%
Disagree: 37%
Don’t know: 19%
 
·         53% of inner Londoners agree, compared to 39% in the outer boroughs.
·         77% of Ken voters – and 14% of Boris voters – agree that Boris’ fare increases make it less likely that they will vote for Boris.
 
Boris Johnson is only using the job of Mayor as a stepping stone to try to become Prime Minister
Agree: 29%
Disagree: 36%
Don’t know: 35%
 
·         35% of men agree compared to 24% of women.
·         35% of inner Londoners agree compared to 26% of those from outer boroughs.
·         13% of Boris voters agree that he is only using the Mayoral role as a stepping stone.
 
David Cameron’s programme of spending cuts makes it less likely I will vote for Boris Johnson
Agree: 30%
Disagree: 46%
Don’t know: 24%
 
·         32% of men agree compared to 28% of women.
·         39% of 35-44 year olds agree.
 
I would like to see Boris Johnson take over from David Cameron as Prime Minister
Agree: 14%
Disagree: 59%
Don’t know: 27%
 
·         17% of men agree compared to 11% of women.
·         18% of inner Londoners agree compared to 12% of those from outer boroughs.
·         20% of Boris voters agree compared to 14% of Ken voters.
 
Ed Miliband’s performance as Labour leader makes it less likely I will vote for Ken Livingstone
Agree: 26%
Disagree: 50%
Don’t know: 24%
 
·         29% of outer Londoners agree compared to 21% of those from inner boroughs.
·         Half (49%) of Boris voters are put off voting for Ken due to Ed Miliband’s performance. This is true of 13% of Ken voters, while 72% of Boris voters disagree with the statement.
 
 
Methodology note:
 

ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1030 London adults online between 19th and 21st January 2012.  Data were weighted to be demographically representative and by likely turnout and past vote recall.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.